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Pre-Race Podium Prediction
I think it will be fun to see how good my crystal ball is, so we are going to try and do a pre-race prediction. Since this commentary goes live long after the race, I am taking to Instagram to keep myself honest. In Malaysia I was damn close, predicting a Verstappen/Hamilton/Vettel podium. Since I did not pre-post that, you’ll have to take me at my word. Here, I think it will be Hamilton, Vettel, Ricciardo. While Japan is still a fairly warm track, the ambient temperature for the race looked to be noticeably cooler than in Sepang. This benefits Mercedes, as overheated super softs have been their weakness in 2017. If Hamilton can keep the lead at the start, I think he will have a good enough mix of pace and tire wear to stay ahead of Vettel’s Ferrari. Being behind the Mercedes will hurt Vettel’s tire wear, making it more difficult to preserve the tires for a proper undercut. Forecast for rain was in the 5% range, so weather will not be a factor. There is a possibility Vettel can undercut Hamilton during the pit stops, but I think Hamilton will be able to push enough during the in/out laps to keep the lead when stops cycle through. Two stops give Vettel two chances to undercut, so it will be interesting to see if Mercedes can respond or if Vettel will get the jump on Hamilton in the pits.
Race
The start was fairly tame, with Lewis Hamilton making a good enough start to keep ahead of his title rival as the field dove into the first turn. Max Verstappen was able to slip under his teammate to take 3rd. At the rear of the field, Carlos Sainz Jr, lost the rear of the car, spinning out into the Turn 2 wall. However, a curious thing happened not long after: Sebastian Vettel began to slip down the ranks. First, he was taken by Verstappen. Then, down the front straight he was overhauled by Ricciardo, Esteban Ocon, and Bottas. A brief Safety Car period to retrieve Sainz’s stricken STR gave Ferrari a chance to try to solve the problem in the car, but by Lap 5 the call came over the radio, “Box Sebastian, box. We retire the car I’m afraid.” Yet again, disaster for Ferrari. To add some salt in the wounds, Raikkonen was pushed wide by Nico Hulkenberg and dropped down to 14th. Between being pushed off and his teammate dropping out with technical failure, Kimi was a man on a mission. In fact, it seemed like the Kimi of old was back on track, pushing hard and carving his way back up through the field. By Lap 14, he was up to 7th and still climbing!
Pirelli predicted a two-stop race for Japan, but the teams had other ideas, aiming for a one-stopper. All three of the top teams set themselves up for this strategy. Verstappen pitted on Lap 22, with Hamilton following a lap later to ward off an undercut. Ricciardo inherited the lead, but pitted on Lap 26. Mercedes decided to play some team tactics and leave Bottas out for an inordinate amount of time. His lack of pace on worn super softs allowed Hamilton to catch up. Bottas let his teammate through and began to block Verstappen in 3rd, allowing Hamilton to inch away. When Bottas did finally pit, Hamilton still had his lead, but Verstappen was unable to do anything about Hamilton.
The final stanza of the race was set off by some form of wheel or suspension failure in Lance Stroll’s Williams. A Virtual Safety Car was deployed to remove the broken car. When the VSC was pulled back in, the podium battles got hot in a hurry. Verstappen was all over the tail of Hamilton, while Bottas was battling Ricciardo for 3rd. Traffic was a major factor, hampering Verstappen’s charge and allowing Hamilton to hang on for the win. Verstappen and Ricciardo rounded out the podium with Bottas and Raikkonen in 4th and 5th respectively.
Random Tech Observation
Post Race
I think the place to start is Hamilton. The Mercedes was not the car to have on race day. A few degrees warmer, or even without the late race VSC, and Verstappen would have swept two in a row. Red Bull is improving, their chassis getting stronger, and their engine, in race trim, almost a match for Mercedes and Ferrari. Renault’s reliability still leaves a bit to be desired (as shown by ? of the Renault powered cars requiring penalty inducing engine changes), but their real deficit is in qualifying. Both Mercedes and Ferrari can turn up their settings for an additional boost in qualifying, giving them a substantial (50 or more) horsepower bump for fast laps. Renault does not yet have that capability and they have said one of their goals for 2018 is to have that “magic” engine setting available for its teams. The lack of overall horsepower did hurt the RBRs at Suzuka (it was especially noticeable on the long, uphill front straight), but the overall package is closing in on being competitive with the Mercedes and Ferrari. CotA and Mexico should really be good for Red Bull, so look for them to continue to spoil the Mercedes/Ferrari party.
Once again, Verstappen put on a masterful drive to second. No silly mistakes, no overly aggressive moves, and no dumb blocks. As he and Ricciardo battled for 2nd at the start of the race, everyone’s minds turned to Hungary earlier in the year when Max’s aggressive pass attempt went wrong and he took out his teammate. Red Bull was not pleased and has sat the 20-year old down. Whatever they have done seems to be working, as his pass on Ricciardo was once again textbook perfect and his stalking of Hamilton towards the end of the race was also impressive. Christian Horner, Red Bull’s team manager, did remind Verstappen not to throw it away, but gave Max the green light to attack. A few more laps and things would have gotten very interesting. Two races still isn’t enough to tell if Verstappen has fully turned the corner from “aggressive young rookie” to “future champion,” but the trend is a positive one and watching him match his aggression with some smarts is refreshing.
Bottas had a solid day, but he was being hampered by Mercedes’ use of him as a blocker for Hamilton. He claims that his issues are down to Mercedes setting up both cars in the same way, favoring Hamilton. This would make sense from a strategic perspective. Mercedes already had a substantial lead in the Constructor’s points and their focus is now on ensuring Hamilton takes home the Driver’s Championship. Using Bottas’ car as a test mule allows them to gather more data for Hamilton. It sucks for Bottas, but it’s also exactly what he signed up for. Mercedes has given him a fair shot at the championship, but now that Hamilton is the clear favorite. Bottas has to settle for being a wingman. 2 wins and a further 8 podiums in 2017 are certainly a good reward for his efforts and Bottas should not be displeased with his performance in 2017 so far. For Raikkonen, his drive through the field was impressive. For a few brief laps, it seemed the Raikkonen the F1 world fell in love with a decade and a half ago was back. Whether he was forced to back off due to reliability concerns, tire concerns, or a loss of motivation is something only the team knows. What’s also interesting is despite his pace, Kimi wasn’t pushing as hard as the cars ahead of him.
